"Quietly insolvent"
Portugal, por Willem Buiter (sublinhados são meus):
" (...) Portugal’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to be around 80% this year, not far from the EA average and it largely avoided the housing bubbles and banking sector excesses of Ireland (or Spain). However, the government deficit remains stubbornly high and the private sector is highly indebted, to the point that Portugal has the largest negative net foreign investment position in the EA (at minus 113% of GDP at the end of 2009). In times of crisis, the debt of private institutions deemed systemically important or too politically well-connected to fail tends to become public debt. (...)
" (...) Portugal’s gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to be around 80% this year, not far from the EA average and it largely avoided the housing bubbles and banking sector excesses of Ireland (or Spain). However, the government deficit remains stubbornly high and the private sector is highly indebted, to the point that Portugal has the largest negative net foreign investment position in the EA (at minus 113% of GDP at the end of 2009). In times of crisis, the debt of private institutions deemed systemically important or too politically well-connected to fail tends to become public debt. (...)
Despite the fiscal austerity package approved in May 2010, the Portuguese central government budget deficit had not yet shown meaningful signs of improvement at the end of November 2010. The year-end target of 7.3% for the general government deficit-to-GDP ratio may only be reached through an accounting trick. Another round of adjustment measures is planned for 2011, amounting to 3% of GDP on top of a 1% of GDP adjustment for 2011 already included in the May 2010 fiscal package. However, this year’s experience shows that implementation risks remain high.
Moreover, Portugal also has one of the EA’s highest levels of gross debt in the non-financial private sector, close to 250% of GDP. (...) Unlike in Spain or Ireland, the private deleveraging process does not seem to have started. The current account deficit is still very high at 9½ % of GDP in Q3 2010 — almost unchanged from pre-crisis levels, so there is no evidence either that the country in the aggregate is beginning to live within its means or that it is shifting resources from the non-traded towards the tradable sectors.
Growth in Portugal this year has been less weak than in the other EA periphery countries (Real GDP likely expanded by 1.6% in 2010) and has not fallen short of expectations yet. However, this is at least in part because Portugal has engaged in less fiscal tightening than the other EA periphery nations. The growth outlook is poor. Portugal has suffered from low growth for many years. (…) A recession in 2011 looks likely. The lack of economic growth and the limited impact of past fiscal tightening measures (...) also imply that there is a substantial risk that deficit targets for 2011 and beyond will not be met.
Yields of Portuguese sovereign debt have already risen markedly. At such high interest rates and with low growth, we consider Portugal to be quietly insolvent and likely to access the EFSF soon."
Moreover, Portugal also has one of the EA’s highest levels of gross debt in the non-financial private sector, close to 250% of GDP. (...) Unlike in Spain or Ireland, the private deleveraging process does not seem to have started. The current account deficit is still very high at 9½ % of GDP in Q3 2010 — almost unchanged from pre-crisis levels, so there is no evidence either that the country in the aggregate is beginning to live within its means or that it is shifting resources from the non-traded towards the tradable sectors.
Growth in Portugal this year has been less weak than in the other EA periphery countries (Real GDP likely expanded by 1.6% in 2010) and has not fallen short of expectations yet. However, this is at least in part because Portugal has engaged in less fiscal tightening than the other EA periphery nations. The growth outlook is poor. Portugal has suffered from low growth for many years. (…) A recession in 2011 looks likely. The lack of economic growth and the limited impact of past fiscal tightening measures (...) also imply that there is a substantial risk that deficit targets for 2011 and beyond will not be met.
Yields of Portuguese sovereign debt have already risen markedly. At such high interest rates and with low growth, we consider Portugal to be quietly insolvent and likely to access the EFSF soon."
Etiquetas: O que vê quem nos vê de fora
Escrito por Bruno Faria Lopes, em
17 janeiro 2011.
Clique aqui para deixar a sua resposta.
